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Highlights
The jobs market may be weak and confidence in the economy is low -- but consumers are spending. Chain stores reported mostly strong results in October, not uniformly strong but strong enough to indicate gains for the ex-auto ex-gas category in the monthly retail sales report from the Commerce Department. Most chains successfully held onto, with some improving, their year-on-year comparisons, a difficult task given the very easy year-on-year comparison with September last year, a month hit by two hurricanes together with the Lehman Brothers collapse. No less important, October's results are likely strong enough to offset less favorable seasonal adjustments compared to September. The most striking comments from today's reports are strength for home furnishings and furniture, a turn that may reflect improvement in the housing sector. To round out the outlook for the retail sales report, gasoline sales look to post a rise given a small increase in volume from September together with a small increase in price. Auto sales look to be very strong vs. September based on Tuesday's manufacturer data.
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