2017 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims  
Released On 10/26/2017 8:30:00 AM For wk10/21, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level222 K223 K235 K225 K to 240 K233 K
4-week Moving Average - Level248.25 K248.50 K239.50 K
New Claims - Change-22 K-21 K10 K

Puerto Rico is becoming a factor but claims data are otherwise very steady at historic lows. Initial claims rose 10,000 in the October 21 week to 233,000 which is just below Econoday's consensus. Claims from hurricane-stricken areas have now leveled except for Puerto Rico where claims jumped by more than 1,000 to 3,242. This could go higher in the weeks ahead.

Showing no hurricane effects are continuing claims which, in lagging data for the October 14 week, fell 3,000 to 1.893 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is only 1.3 percent. Except for the wildcard of Puerto Rico, jobless claims are consistent with full employment.

Consensus Outlook
Hurricane effects have completely eased from initial jobless claims which hit a 44-year low in the prior week at 222,000. Yet Puerto Rico is still an unknown given low levels of claims still coming out of the territory. The consensus call for the October 21 week, at 235,000, sees only a limited increase and no major Puerto Rican effect.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

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