2017 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 8/31/2017 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Personal Income - M/M change0.0 %0.4 %0.3 % to 0.5 %0.4 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change0.1 %0.2 %0.4 %0.2 % to 0.5 %0.3 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change0.0 %0.1 %0.0 % to 0.2 %0.1 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change0.1 %0.1 %0.1 % to 0.2 %0.1 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change1.4 %1.4 %1.4 % to 1.6 %1.4 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change1.5 %1.4 %1.4 % to 1.6 %1.4 %

Highlights
Vital signs for the consumer are strong but inflation is completely lifeless, based on a mixed personal income & outlays report for July. Income is the highlight, up 0.4 percent in the month including a second straight 0.5 percent gain for wages & salaries in what is an important and emerging sign of wage traction.

Consumer spending rose 0.3 percent in the month, 1 tenth below expectations as spending on services managed only a 0.2 percent gain to offset strength for durables, up 0.6 percent, and non-durables, up 0.5 percent. The spending gain represents a moderate start for the major component of third-quarter GDP.

Inflation readings, however, remain a major trouble spot, up only 0.1 percent both overall and for the core (less food & energy). Year-on-year rates are 1.4 percent both overall and for the core, the latter edging down 1 tenth in a result that won't be raising the odds for the beginning of balance-sheet unwinding at September's FOMC meeting.

Employment is very strong and may finally be reflected in strength in wages, but gains here have yet to boost inflation readings which in this report are central to Federal Reserve policy. Nevertheless, the gain in income will put the focus on average hourly earnings for August in tomorrow's employment report which, however, are not expected to show much strength.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Both personal income and consumer spending were very weak in June, unchanged for the former and up only 0.1 percent for the latter. These results make for easy monthly comparisons and Econoday's July consensus calling for 0.4 percent gains for both income and spending. The spending side will mark the first leg of consumer spending for third-quarter GDP. Price data have been completely lifeless and not much improvement is expected. The PCE price index is seen inching 0.1 percent higher vs no change in June with the year-on-year rate unchanged at 1.4 percent. Core PCE (less food & energy) came in at plus 0.1 percent in June and a yearly 1.5 percent with forecasters looking in July for another monthly 0.1 percent gain for a year-on-year rate, however, of only 1.4 percent.

Definition
Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/303/13/315/15/306/308/18/319/2910/3011/3012/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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