2017 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 9/1/2017 10:00:00 AM For Aug, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level56.3 56.6 55.5  to 57.5 58.8 

Highlights
Led by production, ISM's manufacturing composite easily exceeded expectations, at 58.8 vs Econoday's consensus for 56.6 and high estimate of 57.5. Production, at 61.0, posted its third straight plus-60 readings in a streak that, however, contrasts unfavorably with the manufacturing component of the industrial production report which declined in July after only a modest rise in June. And today's production reading also contrasts with this morning's employment report where manufacturing hours declined noticeably in August. But the ISM sample has been reporting unusual strength all year and none stronger than this month, in fact none stronger in more than six years.

Like production, new orders, at 60.3, are over 60 for a third straight month with employment, at 59.9, very near 60 and also at a 6-year high. Backlog orders are unusually strong as are export orders. Inventories are on the rise and delivery times are slowing reflecting demand-related congestion in the supply chain. Input costs remain elevated in another reading that has yet to be confirmed by government data, in this case producer prices which have been flat.

Sample sizes for private data like the ISM can number less than several hundred and responses are always voluntary. These methodological facts could be behind the ISM's enormous strength this year. Still, factory payrolls in this morning's employment report were indeed unusually strong and do lend support to reports such as these.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The ISM manufacturing index has been strong this year, holding over 55 the last two reports including 56.3 in July. Both new orders and backlog orders were unusually strong in July which points to general strength for the sample's activity in August. And forecasters are calling for continued strength in August, at a consensus 56.6.

Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM manufacturing index [formerly known as the NAPM Survey] is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/35/16/17/38/19/110/211/112/1
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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