2018 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation  
Released On 10/5/2018 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change201,000 270,000 180,000 150,000  to 195,000 134,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level3.9 %3.8 %3.8 % to 3.9 %3.7 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change204,000 254,000 175,000 145,000  to 190,000 121,000 
Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M change-3,000 5,000 10,000 6,000  to 15,000 18,000 
Participation Rate - level62.7 %62.7 %62.6 % to 62.8 %62.7 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.4 %0.3 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.4 %0.3 %
Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y change2.9 %2.9 %2.8 % to 3.0 %2.8 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.5 hrs34.5 hrs34.4 hrs to 34.5 hrs34.5 hrs

Highlights
In a mixed report that keeps expectations for Federal Reserve policy in line, September payroll growth wasn't as strong as expected but the unemployment rate went down and August gets a big upgrade.

Nonfarm payrolls rose a lower-than-expected but still respectable 134,000 with August revised 69,000 higher to 270,000. The unemployment rate fell 2 tenths to 3.7 percent which, in contrast to payroll growth, is stronger than expected and a 49-year low. This reflects another drop in the number of people actively looking for jobs, now at 5.964 million and well down from 6.235 million in August. Not raising any fuss are wage indications from average hourly earnings which rose an as-expected 0.3 percent for a year-on-year 2.8 percent that is 1 tenth below expectations.

Looking at payroll data, manufacturing added a stronger-than-expected 18,000 in September with August revised into the plus column to 5,000 vs an initial minus 3,000. Construction added a very solid 23,000 and mining, which is perhaps the strongest of any industry, up 5,000 which is very strong for the sector's size. Retail, however, shed 20,000 payroll jobs with trade & transportation, where conditions are tight due to the strength of demand, up 8,000 following a 55,000 surge in August. Professional & business services rose a very strong 54,000 with the subcomponent of temporary help up a solid 11,000, both indicating that employers are scrambling to fill positions.

The key in all of this is wages and they're showing steady -- but not accelerating -- pressure. Average hourly earnings rose an as-expected 0.3 percent in the month for a year-on-year 2.8 percent. The monthly revision to August, down 1 tenth to 0.3 percent, is also favorable, favorable that is if you're the Federal Reserve worried about wage inflation.

The impact of Hurricane Florence, which struck the Carolinas at the end of the report's mid-month sample week, is uncertain and is probably marginally unfavorable. But this is unimportant. What is important is that the labor market is adding jobs at a solid rate, that the number of people looking for jobs keeps going down and that wage pressures are steady and firm, all confirming expectations for a steady path of gradual rate hikes by the Fed.

Consensus Outlook
A solid 180,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls is Econoday's consensus for the September employment report with the unemployment rate seen edging down to 3.8 percent. Average hourly earnings, after a strong showing in August, are expected to rise a noticeable 0.3 percent with the year-on-year rate, however, expected to edge 1 tenth lower to 2.8 percent. Private payrolls are seen rising 175,000 with manufacturing payrolls expected to bounce back from a rare decline in August with a solid increase of 10,000. The workweek is seen unchanged at 34.5 hours with the labor participation rate also unchanged at 62.7 percent.

Definition
The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.

Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payroll gains of 150,000 or so are considered healthy. Heading into recession, payroll gains begin to move below 100,000 and then, in confirmation of recession, into outright contraction. Coming out of recession, payroll gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The unemployment rate measures those who have a job relative to those who are actively looking for a job. During recessions, those actively looking may grow discouraged, dropping out of the workforce and, in a counter- intuitive twist, putting downward pressure on the unemployment rate. During times of economic strength, workforce dropouts may regain their confidence and begin actively looking for a job once again which puts upward pressure on the unemployment rate.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/23/94/65/46/17/68/39/710/511/212/7
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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