2018 Economic Calendar
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Industrial Production  
Released On 7/17/2018 9:15:00 AM For Jun, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Production - M/M change-0.1 %-0.5 %0.6 %0.4 % to 0.9 %0.6 %
Manufacturing - M/M-0.7 %-1.1 %0.8 %0.6 % to 1.0 %0.8 %
Capacity Utilization Rate - Level77.9 %77.7 %78.3 %78.0 % to 78.4 %78.0 %

Highlights
A big snap back in manufacturing helped to lift industrial production 0.6 percent higher in June in a strong gain that hits Econoday's consensus. Manufacturing's 0.8 percent gain also hits Econoday's consensus, a big rebound that reverses a plunge in the prior month that was tied to supply snags following a fire at a Michigan parts supplier. Motor vehicle production surged 7.8 percent in June following May's 8.6 percent drop. Hi-tech also had a strong June with production up 1.4 percent.

Outside of manufacturing, mining once again is very positive with production up 1.2 percent. This helped to offset a 1.5 percent decline in utility output, one likely tied to June's mild weather.

With the manufacturing component back on track, factory data look to be a very strong highlight of the second-half economy. Watch on Thursday's calendar for advance data on July's factory conditions from the Philly Fed report.

Note that traditional non-NAICS numbers for industrial production may differ marginally from NAICS basis figures.

Consensus Outlook
A big bounce back is expected for industrial production, at a consensus gain of 0.6 percent in June vs May's 0.1 percent downtick. The manufacturing component is expected to produce an even greater rebound, at a consensus 0.8 percent gain vs a 0.7 percent tumble in May that was tied to a one-time disruption in the auto supply chain. Pressures on capacity utilization are expected to tighten 4 tenths to 78.3 percent.

Definition
The Federal Reserve's monthly index of industrial production and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates cover manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. The industrial sector, together with construction, accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the course of the business cycle. The production index measures real output and is expressed as a percentage of real output in a base year, currently 2012. The capacity index, which is an estimate of sustainable potential output, is also expressed as a percentage of actual output in 2012. The rate of capacity utilization equals the seasonally adjusted output index expressed as a percentage of the related capacity index.

The index of industrial production is available nationally by market and industry groupings. The major groupings are comprised of final products (such as consumer goods, business equipment and construction supplies), intermediate products and materials. The industry groupings are manufacturing (further subdivided into durable and nondurable goods), mining and utilities. The capacity utilization rate -- reflecting the resource utilization of the nation's output facilities -- is available for the same market and industry groupings.

Industrial production was also revised to NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) in the early 2000s. Unlike other economic series that lost much historical data prior to 1992, the Federal Reserve Board was able to reconstruct historical data that go back more than 30 years.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The industrial sector accounts for less than 20 percent of GDP. Yet, it creates much of the cyclical variability in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation's factories, mines and utilities. In the past, supply bottlenecks created inflationary pressures as the utilization rate hit 84 to 85 percent.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/172/153/164/175/166/157/178/159/1410/1611/1612/14
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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