2018 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 1/3/2018 10:00:00 AM For Dec, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level58.2 58.1 57.1  to 59.5 59.7 

Highlights
Headlined by a 14-year high for new orders, ISM's manufacturing index rose 1.5 points to 59.7 in December to just top Econoday's high estimate. New orders posted their 7th straight plus 60 reading and nearly broke 70 at 69.4 with backlog orders up 1 point to 56.0 which is very strong for this reading. Backing up the order strength are new export orders which are up 2.5 points to 58.5 which is very strong for this reading also.

Production is up and inventories are being drawn down. Adding to the headline strength are once again lengthening delivery times which is consistent with demand-related congestion in the supply chain. Input prices remain very elevated.

This report, like most private and regional surveys, has been far outstripping the strength in definitive factory data which however have also been coming alive in recent months. The factory sector looks to have ended 2017 on the upswing which will be a positive for fourth-quarter GDP.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The ISM manufacturing index had been surging dramatically most of the year, beating Econoday's consensus for five straight months from May to September when it peaked at 60.8. But the index failed to meet expectations in both October and November largely, however, due to post-hurricane improvement in delivery times (which is a negative in the index's calculation). New orders as well as employment have in fact remained unusually strong. The Econoday consensus for December is 58.1 vs 58.2 in the last report.

Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM manufacturing index [formerly known as the NAPM Survey] is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/25/16/17/28/19/410/111/112/3
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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