2018 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 5/3/2018 10:00:00 AM For Apr, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level58.8 58.4 57.3  to 59.3 56.8 

Highlights
All 18 non-manufacturing industries in the April ISM report composite growth, leading another very strong month where strength perhaps is understated by the 56.8 headline which falls under Econoday's low estimate. Holding down the composite headline is less pressure on delivery times which however remain extended in continuing evidence of shipping pressures and shortages. New orders remain exceptionally strong, at 60.0, with export orders even stronger at 61.5 (strength echoed in today's jump in service exports in the international trade report).

ISM's sample includes not only service industries but mining, which has been very strong and is also the leading industry in April, and also construction, which despite possible snags due to metal tariffs, is near the top. Though immediate effects are uncertain, tariffs were a hot topic for respondents who expressed their concerns over related business disruptions and the risk of unexpected outcomes.

Higher input costs are certainly one risk of tariffs with this reading up 3 tenths to a very elevated 61.8. Other readings in today's report include a 3 point dip in employment to 53.6 which still points to strength but won't be raising expectations for tomorrow's employment report. Employment and deliveries aside, April's report once again highlights ISM non-manufacturing as one of the strongest small-sample surveys on the calendar.

Consensus Outlook
The ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to hold at a very strong rate of growth, at a consensus 58.4 in April vs 58.8 in March. Delivery times have been lengthening and input costs going up, both indicative of unsustainably strong growth for ISM's sample.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/53/54/45/36/57/58/39/610/311/512/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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