2018 Economic Calendar
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Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey  
Released On 1/18/2018 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level26.2 27.9 25.0 21.0  to 31.8 22.2 

The Philly Fed's manufacturing index remains very strong though it did ease a bit in this month to 22.2 vs December's revised 27.9. New orders continue to build but at a slowing rate, at 10.1 vs December's outsized 28.2, while unfilled orders were actually drawn down, at minus 1.8 vs December's plus 12.8. And optimism is easing back in the sample as the 6-month outlook fell more than 10 points to what is still a very strong 42.2.

But that's where the soft spots end as shipments accelerated more than 6 points to 30.3, the workweek rose more than 5 points to 16.7, and employment held very solid at 16.8 yet nevertheless down nearly 3 points from December.

Price data speak to strength with inputs at 32.9 and selling prices at 25.1 which for the latter is up more than 12 points in the month and is unusually strong.

This report was the first to take off this time last year in what correctly signaled a healthy 2017 for the factory sector but far above the Federal Reserve's assessment which was underscored yesterday by weakness in the manufacturing component of the industrial production report and the sector's "modest" description in the Beige Book.

Consensus Outlook
New acceleration from an already enormously strong rate of growth was December's result for the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index which is expected to slow a modest 1.2 points in January to 25.0. New orders poured in back in December with backlogs building and shipments moving out the door. Selling prices also showed traction in the last report.

The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.  Why Investors Care
The Philadelphia Fed''s business outlook survey is a good leading indicator for the index of industrial production. It is reported in the third week of the month and thus has a lead time of nearly three weeks.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/182/153/154/195/176/217/198/169/2010/1811/1512/20
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

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