2018 Economic Calendar
POWERED BY  econoday logo
U.S. & Intl Recaps   |   Event Definitions   |   Today's Calendar   |   

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey  
Released On 7/19/2018 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level19.9 22.0 18.0  to 24.5 25.7 

Highlights
The sharpest rise in input costs since July 2008 -- and no doubt tariff related -- leads an overheated Philly Fed report for July. The general business conditions index, at 25.7, tops Econoday's consensus range but it's the prices paid index that takes the headline, surging more than 11 points to 62.9 which is one of the very highest on record.

Some of these costs are being passed through as selling prices are up more than 3 points to 36.3 which is also among the highest on record. But not all the costs are being passed through which may explain a noticeable decline in the 6-month outlook, down nearly 6 points to 29.0 and a 2-year low.

But orders just keep pouring in for this sample, at 31.4 for a 13.5 point gain from June with unfilled orders very strong, at 11.0 for a nearly 14 point gain. Whether this sample can keep up with the business is a legitimate question given continuing lengthening in delivery times and the tariff-related dislocations, as detailed in yesterday's Beige Book report, surrounding metals and lumber.

Scarcities and rising prices were already evident in the regional reports even before tariffs were put in place. Now tariffs are adding to the pressure and are a wildcard playing out right now in the nation's manufacturing sector where growth, nevertheless, appears to be very strong.

Consensus Outlook
Re-acceleration is the consensus for July's Philly Fed report which in June slowed sharply from record strength in May. The consensus for July is 22.0 vs 19.9 in June.

Definition
The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey offers advance indications on the industrial production index. The survey is reported in the third week of the month and has a lead time of nearly three weeks on industrial production.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/182/153/154/195/176/217/198/169/2010/1811/1512/20
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


powered by  [Econoday]