2018 Economic Calendar
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Treasury Budget  
Released On 9/13/2018 2:00:00 PM For Aug, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Treasury Budget - Level$-76.9 B$-178.0 B$-211.0 B to $-91.8 B$-214.1 B

Highlights
With only one month left in fiscal year 2018, the government's deficit is running 33.3 percent deeper than fiscal year 2017. August's deeper-than-expected monthly deficit of $214.1 billion lifts the year-to-date shortfall to a whopping $898.1 billion vs $673.7 billion at this time last year.

But the widening deficit isn't due to individual tax receipts which, thanks to strong growth in the labor market, are up 7.0 percent from the prior fiscal year to a year-to-date $1.522 trillion. This gain helps to offset a striking 30.4 percent decline in corporate income taxes to only $162.6 billion, a drop that reflects this year's big corporate tax cut. Total receipts, which include a 17.1 percent jump in custom duties to a year-to-date $36.7 billion, are up 0.6 percent from fiscal 2017.

The spending side is led by an 8.3 percent increase in Medicare to a year-to-date $562.3 billion with defense up 6.8 percent to $610.3 billion. Net interest is also a factor in the spending rise, up 21.0 percent to $332.1 billion and reflecting the rise underway in the nation's debt. Total spending, in contrast to the small increase in receipts, is up 6.7 percent.

The 2018 economy is proving very strong and much of the strength can be attributed to old fashioned Keynesianism -- a rise in deficit spending.

Consensus Outlook
Individual tax receipts are up, corporate tax receipts are down and spending is on the rise. Nine months into the government's fiscal year, the year-to-date deficit to July was 16 percent deeper than the prior year. Econoday's consensus for the August Treasury statement is a monthly deficit of $178.0 billion.

Definition
The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance reflect Federal policy on spending and taxation. The government's fiscal year begins in October.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/112/123/124/115/106/127/128/109/1310/1111/1312/12
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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