2018 Economic Calendar
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International Trade in Goods  
Released On 2/27/2018 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Balance$-71.6 B$-72.3 B$-71.3 B$-72.9 B to $-70.0 B$-74.4 B
Exports % change2.7 %2.5 %-2.2 %
Imports % change2.5 %2.9 %-0.5 %

Exports came back sharply in January to feed an oversized $74.4 billion goods deficit in January, in what starts off another quarter of trouble for net exports and GDP. Exports fell 2.2 percent in the month with capital goods and industrial supplies posting sharp declines and easily offsetting a sizable gain for the smaller category of consumer goods. Imports also fell but much less so, down 0.5 percent with imports of consumer goods, which on this side of the ledger is the largest category, down 2.2 percent. Imports of capital goods were also down. Today's report points to a beginning-of-the-year slowing for cross-border trade and a slowing lopsided against exports.

Consensus Outlook
The goods deficit in January is expected to narrow to a consensus -$71.3 vs -$72.3 billion in December (revised from an initial $71.6 billion). December's data, like that for November, actually pointed to very strong cross-border demand with both goods exports rising sharply and also goods imports which are by far the larger of the two. Also released with the report will be advance January data for both wholesale inventories and retail inventories which, like net exports, will also be inputs into the second estimate for fourth-quarter GDP.

The Census Bureau is now publishing an advance report on U.S. international trade in goods. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will incorporate these data into its estimates of exports and imports for the advance GDP estimates. This is expected to reduce the size of revisions to GDP growth in the second estimates.

Note that data in the advance goods report are accounted for on a census basis and can differ slightly from subsequent data in the international trade report where goods data are accounted for on a balance of payment basis to adjust for changes in ownership that can occur without goods passing into or out of the US.  Why Investors Care

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/273/284/265/306/277/268/289/2710/2511/2812/28
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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