2018 Economic Calendar
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index  
Released On 2/26/2018 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Level0.27 0.14 0.20 0.20  to 0.30 0.12 
3 Month Moving Average0.42 0.43 0.17 

Highlights
Underpinned by employment, January was another solid month for the economy judging by the national activity index which held in moderately positive ground at 0.12 vs a downward revised 0.14 for December. The 3-month average, reflecting the rolling off the hurricane-rebound month of October, fell sharply but is still positive at 0.17.

The employment component, reflecting the strength of January's payroll growth of 200,000, was the strongest contributor to the latest month's index, at 0.09, followed by sales, orders & inventories at 0.07. Consumption & housing, reflecting weakness in the former that offset strength in the latter, was a marginal negative for the fourth month in a row while production, the result of another disappointing performance for manufacturing, was a marginal drag on the month.

This report helps highlight two of the most important features of the early 2018 economy: strength in employment and softness in consumer spending.

Consensus Outlook
Strength in mining and a burst in utility output helped drive the December national activity index to an unexpectedly strong 0.27 in an otherwise mostly flat report. The consensus for January's national activity index is 0.2.

Definition
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.  Why Investors Care
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/222/263/264/235/216/257/238/279/2410/2211/2612/24
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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