2018 Economic Calendar
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index  
Released On 3/26/2018 8:30:00 AM For Feb, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Level0.12 0.02 0.05 0.05  to 0.20 0.88 
3 Month Moving Average0.17 0.16 0.37 

Highlights
A jump in industrial production fueled a sharp rise in the national activity index, at 0.88 in February vs a revised plus 0.02 in January.

Contributing 0.50 to February's index was the production component with the employment component also strongly positive, at 0.31. The component for sales, orders, and inventories made a contribution of 0.09, reflecting ISM indications for an inventory build, while the downward pull from the only negative component, personal consumption & housing, eased to minus 0.02 from minus 0.10. The decline here largely reflects a falloff in housing starts.

But today's report in sum is very positive and, with the 3-month average gaining strength at 0.37, hints at factory-led strength for the first quarter.

Consensus Outlook
Strength in both mining and manufacturing production as well as strong job growth are likely to offset softness in consumption and housing to help February's national activity index stay positive at 0.05 vs January's 0.12

Definition
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.  Why Investors Care
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/222/263/264/235/216/257/238/279/2410/2211/2612/24
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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