Compared to his theme of moderation in last month's FOMC press conference, Jerome Powell sounds a little hawkish in today's comments before the Economic Club of Chicago. In prepared text, the FOMC chair notes that inflation readings have firmed over the last few months and he warns they may move up "notably" this spring. Though he is stressing that economic risks remain balanced, he says growth is picking up and the labor market is in the neighborhood of full employment. Yet Powell does note that the labor participation rate is historically low and wage growth has been moderate, which are both indications that job slack does in fact remain. He believes the relationship in the Phillips curve between employment and inflation, though weakened, still applies. In questions and answers, Powell noted that tariff talks between the U.S. and China are at an early stage and have had no near-term effects.