2018 Economic Calendar
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Treasury Budget  
Released On 4/11/2018 2:00:00 PM For Mar, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Treasury Budget - Level$-215.2 B$-$186.0 B$-$207.0 B to $-$180.0 B$-208.7 B

Highlights
Corporate income taxes are falling at the same time that spending is going up. The result? A rising government deficit that in March just exceeded Econoday's deepest estimate, at $208.7 billion.

Looking at the 6 months so far in fiscal year 2018, the government's deficit continues to get deeper, at $599.7 billion which is 13.8 percent more severe than this time last year and is up from 11.5 percent in the February data.

Total receipts are up 1.6 percent over those six months with individual income taxes holding in the plus column, at a year-to-date 5.9 percent and offsetting a 22 percent decline in corporate taxes.

Total spending is up 4.8 percent led by 4.1 percent increases for both defense and Social Security and a 14 percent jump in net interest reflecting rising debt service expenses.

The monthly Treasury statement looks to be of increasing note this year, offering the first look at tax-cut effects and fiscal stimulus. Note that deepening in the debt can be offset by a narrowing in the trade deficit as well as by further increases in foreign investment inflow.

Consensus Outlook
The Treasury budget for March will update the effects of this year's tax cut which lowered both individual and corporate receipts in the first two months of the year. At $391 billion from October to February, the government's fiscal year-to-date deficit was running 11.5 percent deeper than the prior year. Econoday's consensus for March is calling for a large deficit of $186.0 billion.

Definition
The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance reflect Federal policy on spending and taxation. The government's fiscal year begins in October.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/112/123/124/115/106/127/128/109/1310/1111/1212/12
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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