The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on present economic conditions and expectations of future conditions. Five thousand consumers across the country are surveyed each month. While the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month. Why Investors Care
| Released on 2/26/08 For Feb 2008 | ||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||
Highlights
Consumer confidence slipped badly in February, down to an index of 75.0 from 87.3 in January. The 75 reading is the lowest since the beginning of the expansion in early 2003. Pessimists have overtaken optimists in four the report's five main components with future income the only positive. On jobs themselves, many more think there will be fewer jobs than more jobs ahead, 27.9 percent vs. 9.0 percent, and more say jobs right now are hard to get than plentiful, 23.8 percent vs. 20.6 percent in an inversion that will lower expectations for the February employment report. On business conditions, more say current conditions are bad than good and many more say future conditions will be worse than better.
The only good news in the report is a steady reading in one year inflation expectations, unchanged at 5.3 percent and in contrast to a mid-month spike in the Reuters/University of Michigan reading last week. This inflation number from the Conference Board will be warm reading at the Federal Reserve following last week's spike in the CPI and today's even bigger spike in the PPI.
The dollar fell in immediate reaction to the confidence data which are likely to pull Treasury yields lower and weigh on the stock market through the day. Today's chain-store reports were mild and together with this report point to an even softer outlook for consumer spending.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index slipped to 87.9 in January from 90.6 in December. The breadth of the decline in confidence seems to be widening. For the latest month, jobs were increasingly seen as hard to get. The readings are more negative for current and future business conditions and for future job and income readings. Buying plans for houses remain very weak though buying plans for vehicles and appliances improved with the latter possibly reflecting lower interest rates. Further weakness in the stock market as well as higher oil prices are likely to weigh on confidence in February.
Consumer confidence Consensus Forecast for February 08: 81.3
Range: 78.0 to 87.5
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
|
Typically retail sales will move in tandem with consumer optimism - although not necessarily each and every month. |
| 2008 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
powered by
![[Econoday]](../../../../../../../../../images/logo.gif){kind=logo}