Highlights
Consumer confidence in the last month has literally plunged beyond all past measurements. The Conference Board's tally is the latest to show the depth of pessimism, the alarming depth of pessimism. The Conference Board's index, at 38.0 for October, fell more than 20 points to the lowest reading in more than 40 years of data. Jobs readings point to big trouble for next week's monthly payroll report. Those saying jobs are currently plentiful fell nearly 4 percentage points to only 8.9 percent. Those saying they are hard to get spiked 5 points to 37.2 percent. These are very large month-to-month movements for these readings which make up a big piece of the current conditions component, a component that tracks very closely with the unemployment rate and is pointing squarely at a sharp rise from the current 6.1 percent.

In bad news for retail sales, only 4.4 percent of the sample say they expect to buy a car in the next six months, unusually low and down a steep 5 tenths against September which was a month of disaster for auto sales. In a sign that consumers are distressed, 12-month inflation expectations inexplicably jumped 7 tenths in the month to 6.9 percent. Perhaps consumers are judging inflation not by gas or food prices, which are coming down, but perhaps by growth in money supply?

Confidence in the present situation has been worse, during the recessions of the early 90s and early 80s. But confidence in the outlook has never been worse, plunging 26 points to 35.5. Confidence in the outlook had been improving even while the economy was slowing, but that was before the August and September crash. Money moved deeper into the Treasury market in reaction to the report while gains in the stock market fell back.

2008 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/29 2/26 3/25 4/29 5/27 6/24 7/29 8/26 9/30 10/28 11/25 12/30 Released For: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec